Fintech and DeFi Research Archive — The Fintech Blueprint

Why Coinbase's $100B+ valuation makes sense, and how to compare it to $60B Ethereum DeFi, and to crypto-king Binance

his week, we look at:

There are two very large revenue pools in the crypto asset class — (1) mining, and (2) trading. There are some large revenue pools in crypto-as-a-software, too, but those tend to be less sensational.
This analysis will establish a 2021 baseline for the most regulated of crypto exchanges, Coinbase, including a detailed financial model building a $100B+ valuation case
We then consider the valuations and multiples of capital markets protocols in Decentralized Finance of Ethereum, now making up over $60B in token value
Lastly, we look at Binance’s $1B in profits, its $35B BNB token, and the activities on Binance Smart Chain

The $250M of non-fungible tokens and the $200MM crypto neo-cyberpunk art market for digital objects (e.g., Beeple, NBA Top Shots), with emerging financial features

In this conversation, I talk with Matt Low of QPQ.io and InveniumX Limited, about digital collectibles, crypto art, NFTs, and all the fun decentralized things going on. The market is annualizing to $200 million in sales volume based on CryptoArt.io, and $250 million in asset issuance according to NonFungible.

NFTs and digital objectsLex SokolinFebruary 19, 2021Beeple, NBA Topshots, Rarible, Fewocious, Dapper Labs, Crypto Kitties, Async Art

How $12 Billion in Fintech SPAC capital is teaching us about the economics of target unicorns like Payoneer, Apex, SoFi, and MoneyLion

This week, we look at:

The $12 billion in cumulative SPAC capital focused on Fintech, of which $3.6 billion has been raised in 2021 Q1 alone
Analysis of the private and public financial services markets and their valuations of profitability and revenue
A deeper look at the fundamentals and business mix of SPAC targets MoneyLion, Payoneer, Apex Clearing, and SoFi
Not everything that glitters is gold

IPO / SPAC, neobank, paytech, venture capitalLex SokolinFebruary 15, 2021MoneyLion, Payoneer, Apex Clearing, SoFi

How M1 Finance's $3B AUM super-app is outcompeting Wealthfront, Robinhood, and Schwab, with CEO Brian Barnes

In this conversation, we talk with Brian Barnes of M1 Finance, about finance “super apps”, the cost-efficiencies of robo-advisors, fractionalized share trading, and tackling the titans of the Wealth Management industry. We also discuss the nuts and bolts of the financial infrastructure making this possible.

M1 Finance bundles together roboadvisory, neobanking and lending into a single “super app”, allowing for combined pricing power (i.e., charging nothing on asset allocation). The firm currently has $3 billion in AUM, a growth of 50% in the past four months and tripling their total in just over a year. Notably, the company has its own broker/dealer and offers fractional shares, and partners with Lincoln Savings bank on the deposit accounts. That makes for a compelling business model from securities lending, interchange, and order flow.

Non-fungible tokens and crypto art (like Hashmasks) will create multi-billion markets for digital objects with financial features

This week, we look at:

Hashmasks, CryptoPunks, and other large NFT / crypto art projects generating tens of millions of USD trading volume
Perceptions of financial value, as well as whether it matters to have an “original” digital art piece relative to its digital copy
The intersection of collectibles with decentralized finance, and its collateralization, tranching, lending, and trading, as well as a view on 2021

The post-FinTech New American Finance, and Robinhood’s $3.4B support of an 8MM-strong Reddit army that cost Wall Street $7B, with Will Beeson of Bella

In this conversation, we talk with Will Beeson of Bella and Rebank, about how the Internet/Reddit/Gamestop broke out financial market structure, the social contract, and what the new American finance structure will look like.

More specifically, we give some thought to which FinTech and Crypto companies win or lose from the GameStop adventure, the actual market structure issues that led to the suspension of Robinhood’s trading, and what’s next for the mobile broker, and finally, the social meaning of the war against hedge funds by Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets. Check out our conversation on these exciting new developments.

digital investing, narrative zeitgeist, exchanges / cap mktsLex SokolinFebruary 5, 2021Robinhood, Reddit, Gamestop

How the Internet/Reddit/GameStop broke our financial market structure, the social contract, and what comes next

Despite its best efforts to the contrary, Robinhood did end up stealing from the rich and giving to the poor.

Melvin Capital, the $8 billion hedge fund that didn’t find GameStop funny, lost 53% of its portfolio in January ($7 billion) trying to short against the rallying cries of the Reddit Capitalist Union. Gabe Plotkin also faces the embarrassment of having to get bailed out by your old boss.

Speaking of, New York Mets owner and former name-on-the-door of SAC Capital, known most recently for its insider trading fine of $1.8 billion, Steven A. Cohen, put $2.8 billion of capital into Melvin’s fund.

Ken Griffin, owner of the Citadel hedge fund (an investor in Melvin), and Citadel Securities (a massive market maker and buyer-of-order-flow for Robinhood), is seeing capital losses in the former and Washington cries for scrutiny into market structure in regards to the latter.

Robinhood itself — which for goodness sake is *not Wall Street*, but as *Silicon Valley* as it possibly gets — raised $1 billion immediately to protect itself from class action lawsuits, DTCC capital calls, and a now-rapidly-closing IPO window. That means Yuri Milner of DST Global chipping in yet again.

That’s at least 4 people that have had a very bad, no good day.

digital investing, philosophy, social & communityLex SokolinFebruary 1, 2021Robinhood, Gamestop, Reddit, Citadel, Melvin Capital

The path from institutional finance (Goldman) to enterprise blockchain (PwC) to the $26B edge of DeFi innovation (Aave) with Ajit Tripathi

In this conversation, we talk Ajit Tripathi, currently the Head of Institutional Business at Aave and a former colleague of mine at ConsenSys, about the path from traditional finance, to enterprise blockchain and “DLT” consulting, to full-on decentralized finance.

Thinking about how to connect these worlds and different available journeys? Or the timeless risks developing in tranched DeFi that look like mortgage-backed securities? We even touch on hegelian dialectics! Check out our great conversation.

What 1840s "Free Banking" and the 1910s Cubist movement suggests about DeFi and economic machine evolution

This week, we look at:

The nature of innovation hubs, and how close groups of actors within a particular environment can be massively, fundamentally productive. Take for example the 30 million years of the Cambrian explosion.
The difficulty of experimenting with banking and money frameworks, the limits of traditional econometrics, and an overview of “free banking” in the 1840s.
How evolutionary theory can help us think about selection of economic models, and the hyper-competition and hyper-mutation that we see in crypto. DeFi protocols, like BadgerDAO and ArcX among hundreds of others, are experiments in designing different monetary policies and banking regime experiments in real time.

We have never before had such acceleration in the design space of the economic machine, subject to evolutionary pressures, built by a closely-wound nexus of developers. It is a fortune for the curious.

Embedded Finance as a $7 trillion market opportunity for banks in the business of suffering, with Simon Torrance

In this conversation, we talk all things embedded finance, platform banking, and APIs with Simon Torrance – one of the world’s leading thinkers on business model transformation, specializing in platform strategy, breakthrough innovation and digital ventures.

There’s an enormous gap between the financial needs of humanity and what the financial sector is able to deliver there. This gap is being filled by tech-savvy solutions and embedded finance plays which are putting into question the role of a bank in this new ecosystem.

embedded finance, digital transformation, China, insurtechLex SokolinJanuary 22, 2021Uber, Tencent, Standard Chartered, Affirm, Shopify

Explaining ~100x revenue multiples for Affirm, Checkout, Rapyd, and other fintech companies using systems theory

This week, we look at:

Over $1 billion in raises announced last week, and over $10 billion in Fintech company value creation: Checkout.com with $450 million at a $15 billion valuation, Affirm more than doubling after its IPO to $30 billion, lending enabler Blend raising $300 million, and payments enabler Rapyd raising $300 million.
A systems theory framework that explains the stocks and flows of goods and services, and what monetization strategies are available to fintechs
How transactional models are thriving and creating 50-100x revenue multiples

Who wins and loses in the Plaid/Visa divorce, and the $10 Billion in new Fintech SPACs (Spakkt and Spofi), with Will Beeson

In this conversation, Will Beeson and I break down a few important pieces of recent news — the SPACs for SoFi and Bakkt, and Plaid/Visa falling apart.

SoFi is going public with a SPAC deal worth over $8 billion. A few things we touch on in detail: (1) this is still largely a lender, (2) there is a gem of an embedded finance play called Galileo that SoFi owns, and (3) the multiple is a little over 10x T12 revenues, which is not crazy expensive, but not cheap.

Speaking of Galileo and finance APIs, we transition to Plaid, and how it is is not going to be one of the networks in Visa’s network of networks. Who wins and who loses in the equation? And last, we cover the Bakkt SPAC of over $2 billion and our view on its future.

acquisition, IPO / SPAC, embedded finance, paytech, digital lendingLex SokolinJanuary 15, 2021Bakkt, Plaid, Visa, SoFi, Galileo

How the OCC is building Crypto America and saving banks from extinction

This week, we look at:

How banks and financial advisors have failed to deliver on $1 trillion in capital appreciation for their clients over the last 12 years
The role of bank regulators in the United States, and the tensions between state and federal agencies
How the OCC is laying the groundwork for national banks to custody crypto assets, bank stablecoin reserves, run blockchain nodes, and use crypto payment networks

And instead of financial advisors or other CFAs guiding the retail market in good decision making, a newsfeed of *what’s popular* has driven Apple, Google, Tesla and the other John Galt hallucinations to the stratosphere. Don’t get us wrong. We love the robot as much as the next Fintech commentator. But it is clear to us that “the masses” are not being “advised”. And that the capital appreciation that matters — cementing the next trillion dollar networks for global future generations in work yet to emerge — is misunderstood and misrepresented by most financial professionals to their clients.

Lessons for banking and finance from video game interface design

We’ve had this write-up in some various mental states floating around for a while, and better done than perfect. So treat this as a core idea to be fleshed out later.

Payments and banking companies should be looking at how people purchase and store digital goods and digital currency in video games. That experience has been polished over 40 years, and is what will be the default expectation for future generations.

For those interested, here is a website that collects user experiences of shopping across hundreds of designs.

What do Bitcoin, Ethereum, GDP, unemployment, and Covid have in common in 2021?

This week, we look at:

The spectacular price increase in crypto assets, hitting new records for Bitcoin, as well as the comparable statistical situation around Covid cases
An explanation of the $1.5 trilion income effect in 2020, and how it has led to both capital acumulation and inequity (thanks NY Times!)
A discussion of all-time-highs and all-time-lows, why we need them, and their connections to the macro-economy, computer code, music, and the universe itself

One wonderful takeaway from Watts, which of course is not his, but beautifully plagiarized into the English language, is the duality of experience. The need for polar opposites, in a clock-like cycle. To have black, you must have white. To have the top of the wave, you need the bottom of the wave. To have a melody, you need equally the presence of the notes, and their absence in silence. To breathe in, you need to breath out. It is meaningless to have a data point without the context in which it exists.

Crypto regulatory wargames with FinCen, FCA, and the US House of Reps, impacting Paxos, Compound, BBVA, and Northern Trust

This week, we look at:

Proposed US regulation from FinCEN, legislation from the House of Representatives, and UK FCA registration requirements that would impact the crypto industry
The difference between competition for share within an established market, and competition between market paradigms (think MSFT vs. open source, finance vs. DeFi)
The crypto custodian moves from BBVA, Standard Charters, and Northern Trust
The bank license moves from Paxos and BitPay, as well as the planned launch of a new chain by Compound, in the context of the framework above

Permissionless finance is a paradigm breach. It pays no regard for the very nature of the incumbent financial market. Without banking, it creates its own banks. Without a sovereign, it bestows law on mathematics and consensus. Without broker/dealers, it creates decentralized robots. And so on. It tilts the world in such a way as to render the economic power of the incumbent financial market less important. Not powerless -- the allure of institutional capital is a constant glimmer of greedy, opportunistic hope. But the hierarchy of traditional finance does not extend to DeFi, and thus has to be re-battled for the incumbent. This is cost, and annoying.

Connecting the $2T in Art owned by UHNW investors, with the rise of crypto art and Beeple's $3.5MM NFT digital art auction

A few delicious morsels for us today, connecting ideas between the automation of the institutional art world, and the rise of non-fungible token art. We are surprised by how things are clicking.

We caught up recently with Lori Hotz of Lobus. Lori used to work in the wealth and investment management businesses of Wall Street (Lehman, Lazard) and comes to art with a background of asset allocation and investment assets. One core narrative in wealth management has of course been roboadvisors and digital wealth, and the automation of the financial advisor process. Whether you are doing client experience, CRM, financial planning, trading, or performance reporting, there are now lots of platforms for everyone from mass-retail to ultra-high-net-worth and family office advisors.

The 2020 guide to Fintech SPACs, and how to get them to like you

This week, we look at:

An overdue analysis of the SPAC structure, reflecting on the $75 billion size and stage of the market
Economics and regulatory paths of going public via investment bankers, SPACs, and direct listings
The marquee teams in Fintech looking to do deals, and what criteria for target selection look like

5 Reactions to Messari's 134 page crypto report

Sometimes more is more, and sometimes less is more.

In that spirit, we strongly urge you to check out Messari’s Crypto Theses for 2021. It is a mammoth work of 134 pages, covering each and every development in the ecosystem.

If you don’t want to fuss around with the email gate, the direct link is here.

We are going to pick out five things that are interesting to us substantively and provide a view below. By pick out, we mean screenshot and respond.

Who are the customers of Embedded Finance, and what do they reveal about Stripe, Affirm, DriveWealth, and Green Dot?

This week, we look at:

Embedded finance as a growing theme with the $10B Affirm IPO and Stripe's launch of Treasury
The customer types that each of these firms is attempting to convert into their product, and what this tells us about economic growth
A framework for understanding the emerging value chain of digital finance, and the role of platforms and marketplaces

Fintech & DeFi Research Archive🔄

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